By ADEOLA ADEROUNMU, Since 2006

Archive for the ‘Crude Oil’ Category

Nigeria @ 56: The Lucky Bastards!

It is better for Buhari to sacrifice his ego than for all of us to allow the APC-Buhari mandate to sacrifice Nigeria. President Buhari should be on his farm tending his cattle or country home playing with his grandchildren. If not now, when does he want to rest?

Nigeria @ 56: The Lucky Bastards!

Adeola Aderounmu

Adeola Aderounmu

Nigeria enters her 56th year as an independent country in deep sorrow. Nigerian politicians who are largely responsible for the economic woes, recession and depression in the country are discussing how to sell the national assets. These politicians fit the expression The Lucky Bastards!

Who sells his father’s house or property without due consultations if not a bastard?

But the real reason Nigerian politicians are the lucky bastards is because they live in a country where there is no rage, yet people expect a change. That’s actually a huge joke.

There are not so many countries in the world where criminals rule the people and get away with it. There are too many examples to draw from but just the flash of news that the case against Mr. Saraki will be dropped, for example, reminds one that Nigeria is not a real country.

In real countries, there would be rage, occupation and sacking of criminals in government by force. The people will see to that.

Nigeria at 56 remains that geographical area where some people captures the center and oppress the rest-more than 100m. The exact population of Nigeria is not known as the northern part of the country is largely exaggerated in terms of the actual human population.

Whose assets are up for sale really? Who has the right to sell the people’s assets without a referendum or a long-term discussion on the benefits and disadvantages of selling national assets?

The common man on the street does not even know what a national asset means. In his world there is no difference from the crimes that has been perpetrated against him through looting of crude oil proceeds or mismanagement of revenues from other sources and the anticipated looting of the proceeds of the sales of Nigeria’s national assets.

The street implication of the sale of a national asset is simply the story of the prodigal child. The people who looted the country into recession are the ones selling and pocketing the proceeds of the national assets. Unless a referendum is done, or a national debate orchestrated, the street meaning of the sale of national assets will stand.

At 56, Nigeria is crawling. It is a big shame and a serious embarassment to the country that (ridiculously) brands herself as the giant of Africa. As far back as the early 90s, a lot of us joke that Nigeria is the sleeping giant of Africa.

In what ways can we now describe Nigeria? The dead giant of Africa will be appropriate. We have the bunch of lucky bastards to thank for that.

But seriously, who could have thought that the second year (now approaching) of the APC could have landed Nigeria into further mess? Only a few of us saw this coming. I remember how we were told to give the APC time. I remember how l always write that Nigeria has no luxury of time.

In several essays l kept complaining about the deviation of the APC from real governance.

In January 2016 l wrote that we cannot go on like this when the prices of goods and services hit the roof. If january 2016 was compared to september 2016, the january month was still a child’s play in terms of the hell that now prevail in Nigeria.

I was in the country to see things myself. It’s a sad situation.

Some people argued that some of us are impatient, that we should give the APC time. Now these people are quiet and they have disappeared from the social network because the APC has failed them. They are embarassed.

To be sincere, we are all embarassed. I am embarassed. I supported APC on the eve of the 2015 elections.

But when some of us write about Nigeria, we should not be seen an anti-government or anti-establishments. I think we go out of our ways to provide that check and the slim life wire that the hope of the common man hinged upon.

Total silence will lead to escalated genocide perpetrated through diverse mechanisms: hunger, road accidents, corruption, deprivation, inequality, injustice, lack of health, lack of education, lack of electricity, rise in social injustice, maladministration and outright war on the people as in the South East and the Niger Delta region.

I write about Nigeria because l’m hoping to one day live in the country that my mother described before she passed to glory. That country where she commuted by rail, walked Yaba to Ojuelegba and Oni Street Surulere by night, left her job to concentrate on family (thinking that things will always be the same, rosy) and procreated (not knowing that poverty could ever knocked on anyone’s door in western Nigeria).

I want to live in the country of my mother, the one that western Nigeria gave her. That’s why l write about Nigeria.

But the lucky bastards stole my future away in Nigeria. They refused to plan for my today. Not even one of them (from 1960 to 2016) will accept that they have done wrong. Rather they are still looting! Unrepentant criminals!

I am a long shot from the dream of living in the country my mother described. The distance was made longer when the APC lost the track very early in the navigation process of the APC-Buhari mandate.

If l am to live in the country that my mother described, the only thing l can ask for at this time in addition to good governance, is the resignation of President Buhari. He has failed and there are no signs that he will succeed before the end of this first term in office. If a miracle happens, he will bring Nigeria to the place it was when the corrupt PDP was sacked in 2015. They are all corrupt up till now. The lucky bastards!

If the APC-Buhari mandate maintains the status-quo, their first term report sheet will end with Nigeria buried in the sand. A country may not be left to govern!

There are so many reasons why president Buhari should resign. More than one year in office, he continues to blame the PDP for his failures. As a teacher, l would have sent (student Buhari) to the special education department. He needs help. He cannot lead successfully.

In the interest of the country at large and to rescue what is left of the first term of a tumultous and corrupt regime, the APC needs to do very quick analyses of her campaign slogans, manifestos and programs and find out what has gone wrong. The country is more important than individual interests or ego.

In an attempt to get back on track, the party should ask Buhari to step aside to allow for fresh minds and active millennium-compliant brains to help the country get back to productive ways again. In 2 years, a lot can still be put together. Someone in the APC needs to stop blaming the PDP. We all saw the problems before the change slogan was activated. Give us a clear blueprint!

Many people, at private discussions, have laughed about my suggestion that Buhari needs to step aside because politicians don’t resign or step aside in Nigeria.

President Buhari’s case is different, he is old and should be in his country home playing with his grandchildren. If not now, when does he want to rest? He needs to go home to Daura and let us retrieve our country from ruins.

It is better for Buhari to sacrifice his ego than for all of us to allow the APC-Buhari mandate to sacrifice Nigeria.

In more than 15 years of writing about Nigeria l have seen the country sailed without the men who thought that Nigeria cannot continue without them. The list will grow with time.

The APC must remember the first item on her manifesto/program. One of the long-term solutions to the several problems plaguing Nigeria is the political solution. We miss the country where our parents and grandparents thrived before the civil war. It is there (to the regional governments)  we must return and start to rebuild.

A country that is a fool at 56 is as good as dead!

 

aderounmu@gmail.com

 

 

The Rule Of Criminals

One of the challenges facing Nigeria and Nigerians is how to achieve or establish the rule of law above the rule of criminals in government and everywhere.

The Rule Of Criminals

By Adeola Aderounmu

Which Way Nigeria?

One is saddened that there is no end in sight for Nigerians being ruled partly by politicians who are absolute criminals.

Ordinary Nigerians are facing very hard and extreme economic hardship and they also have to continue to cope with the reality that some of those who they expected to be part of the solution are actually political criminals.

My recent visit to Nigeria left another deep cut in my soul. What l saw is that majority of Nigerians are still suffering!

The kind of suffering in Nigeria exposes majority of the population to conditions that are completely unacceptable for humans. People have no access to basic facility or infrastructure. This information is not news.

However what may be news is that several millions of Nigerians are now in new category called systematic beggars. People are begging for food and money from those that still have a little to live on.

What l saw in Nigeria revealed that majoroity of Nigerians not only lack the basic things of life, they also lack material comfort. Many people are running around on empty stomachs.

In 2012, l defined mass poverty using Nigeria as a case study.  Since then the mass poverty situation in Nigeria has escalated.

Sadness is rampant. Deceit and mutual suspicion are written on everybody’s face. Today, a few people are tasking the government and police on the high rate of crime. The trend will continue because even the police are stopping people randomly on the streets and robbing them of their possessions!

Things are getting worse in Nigeria. The conditions of living are terrible. There is almost no word to describe the standard of living of the ordinary people. Poor is an understatement. What comes after low or poor standard of living? The living situations are extremely sad and disheartening.

At this sad point in Nigeria’s history, the lowest ebb the country has ever reached, one would expect that the government at various levels will show empathy and concern for the plights that have been inflicted on the people through years of misgovernance and negligence.

Alas! The present government is not helping matters in that direction at all.

As Nigerians are allegedly made to bear the grunt and pain of the decline in crude oil prices, the cost of governance itself remains at the same high level.

Governance in Nigeria is established on a twin culture of waste and propaganda.

The level of corruption in the present government easily contradicts the propaganda that Nigerians are paying for the low price of crude oil and the wastage of the Jonathan administration.

Nigeria does not depend on crude oil only by the way.

In any case if Nigerian politicians stop stealing and perhaps even start to drop some body and material weights, perhaps the effects of the drop in crude oil sales that have also also been aggravated by the Niger Delta Avengers would spread evenly among the population, and we can understand the situation together.

But sadly, as a manner of repetition, let me reiterate that the cost of governance in Nigeria remains high and wasteful.

Nigeria is spending a lot of money on arms of government that are invariably useless. The category that has been in the eye of the storm most is the legislative arm.

At the Senate and the House of Representatives, the revelations that have come to front since the emergence of the Buhari-APC mandate are shameful and scandalous.

A government that is fighting corruption mostly in the opponent camps yet housing criminals at its own backyard is a worthless government. That is what the APC government has become.

The scandals that have rocked the Senate where Mr. Saraki heads the other alleged criminals are enough to level it. But it stands as a monument of stinking corruption.

The scandals that have rocked the House of Representatives where Mr. Dogara heads the other alleged criminals are enough to sweep the house into the ocean so that it does not ever evolve again.

It is shocking that Nigerians know that they are partly ruled by criminals and they are suffering and living with the knowledge of the causes of majority of their problems. But they are not doing anything serious about it.

Something has to give in someday as a way of showing these criminals their ways out of governance.

We also actually need someone to remind this government of its virtual fight against corruption whereas the government itself is stinking and rotten, full of criminals in high and low places.

About 30 something years ago, when l was a little boy, l read an article in a newspaper. The title was: Who Is Fooling Who? I don’t remember the author but it mentioned that many things that are true today.

One of the challenges facing Nigeria and Nigerians is how to achieve or establish the rule of law above the rule of criminals in government and everywhere.

The political criminals are on the advantage because despite the fact that their criminalities are known and exposed, they have so far circumvent the law to their advantages. They have remain strong due to the weakness of the people and their passiveness to corruption everywhere.

The difference between common sense and political criminal sense remains crystal clear.

While common sense makes people leave the public scene in shame after a scandal, the political criminal sense makes people fight back using the weaknesses in the law especially in a nonsensical democracy like Nigeria where self preservation is the norm. Civility suffers.

The difference extends to the point  that with political criminal sense, every scandal is tagged as a political witchhunt. The political criminal sense does not deny the existence of a crime or scandal. It just fights against it.

Invariably, the changed promised by the APC has turned to a sham, more so because of the political criminals that persist and control the APC government.

When l’d visited civil service establishments during my one month stay in Nigeria, the situation and conditions of services are even worse. The morale is down, many things are still being done just like before.

The workers still receive bribes, the police are on the roads doing the usual collection and false accusation.  From the political criminals holding sway in Abuja, to the smallest streets in Nigeria, it is business of corruption as usual.

The things that have changed have brought more hardship to our lives. Things just got worse for the ordinary people. For example, under Mr. Fashola, Nigerians pay more money for darkness. There is promise of light and the bills are already higher for the services that have not been provided. What is 419 again?

The people earn less or nothing at all (when salaries are not paid for several month) but they pay more for everything. There are so many scams perpetrated by the Buhari-APC government that should have resulted to outright outrages.

But Nigerians are praying and fasting even on empty stomachs. Thanks to the magicians called men of God. Rather than build factories, more churches and mosques are sprining up everywhere in Nigeria.

Even in government houses where looting and stealing are taking place, there are churches and mosques in the premises. What is the meaning of den of robbers? Who is fooling who? Who prays in these religious houses and who are the political criminals in government?

It’s always a painful experience recounting the problems of Nigeria. Whereas we know that the solutions are easy. If people start to do the right things, just the right things, Nigeria will pick up.

But after decades of misrule and systemic disorientation,majority of the people are used to doing the wrong things. This cruel reality is what led to the emergence and sustenance of wrong doers and criminals in public offices.

So, the rule of criminals is very complicated.

There are other issues with the Buhari-APC mandate. Along with the painful existence of the rule of criminals, Nigerians are more than ever before battling with tribalism. Sadly too, the influence of religion in government has never been this prominent in the history of governance in Nigeria.

Up to the local government level, religious affiliation is a crucial factor in the curriculum vitae of office-seekers in Nigeria. What l saw in Nigeria shocked me!

That long-lasting solution of just doing the right things in public service eludes majority of Nigerians. But it must re-emerge side-by-side a political system or structure that is functional. That ancitipated change in political system has been called several names, from regional government to regional autonomy and even true fiscal federalism.

At this moment, at the end of august 2016, Nigeria is not working and the rule of criminals dominate the rule of law.

Nigeria needs a genuine political change.

Reference: Mass Poverty In Nigeria (2012) By Adeola Aderounmu.

https://aderinola.wordpress.com/2012/01/19/mass-poverty-in-nigeria-2012

 

aderounmu@gmail.com

 

 

Why 113 million Nigerians Are Poor

Do you know that about 1% of Nigerians control more than 80% of the country’s wealth?

In 2015, Nigeria is listed among the world’s fastest growing economy whereas more than 90% of the population considered themselves to be poor already in 2010 and the figures are rising!

Why 113 million Nigerians Are Poor

By Adeola Aderounmu

Which Way Nigeria?

Nigeria still remains one of the most endowed countries in the world. In terms of natural resources, minerals and enormous prospects for agricultural development Nigerians stands out as a reservoir of abundant wealth.

Unfortunately and paradoxically Nigeria is presently home to about 113 million people living in absolute poverty. This figure represents more than 90% of the population.

Most of the blame for this anomaly lies at the doorsteps of Nigerian politicians and their partners in crime in the top military wing. A weak citizenry shares out of this whole mess.

At independence in 1960 the unprepared politicians inherited a structure that was built mainly for the purpose of colonization by the British. It was difficult to manage and the federation though functional crumbled in 1966 when the military interrupted the nascent democratic process.

In 1999 the military provided the basis for the democracy that Nigeria precariously thrives upon today. Again, this was not the foundation that Nigeria needed because of the enormous influence of the military and the enthronement of Olusegun Obasanjo ensured that the country even today is still in bondage.

To live in extreme poverty means that one barely has a roof over one’s head. In extreme situations people living in poverty have nowhere to call a home. Having food to eat is a difficult adventure and having money to buy clothes is a sort of luxury for those living in poverty.

Poverty is a broad term no doubts. It is also reflected in the lives of several millions of Nigerians through high infant mortality, high maternal mortality, inadequate vaccination in some parts of the country and an embarrassing life expectancy value.

Poverty extends to lack of access to essential public services. Nigeria is probably suffering from over population as well. The public schools are very few, inadequate and very dysfunctional as private educational institutions have taken over the initiation of providing quality but very expensive educational services  that are out of the reach of the poor masses.

In the same vein, access to quality health service is also very expensive as public health care remains under developed and sometimes costly. The percentage of Nigerians with access to paid employment is appalling, it’s very low. It is not uncommon for people to state that they are hustling. Hustling covers a wide range of illegal and seasonal ways of making money which unfortunately include armed robbery, fraud and vandalism.

All the parameters for defining or expressing poverty are unevenly distributed. The Niger Delta which is home to the oil wealth of Nigeria is also home to some of the world’s poorest people. From low literacy level to access to health care and vaccination, the northern part of Nigeria is even worst hit.

The recent media hype coming from CNN-Money putting Nigeria among the fastest growing economy in the world does not translate to food on the tables, roof over the heads and cloth on the bodies of the people suffering from poverty.

It must be emphasized that the economic wealth or well-being in Nigeria is concentrated in the hands of a very few people. About 1% of Nigerians control more than 80% of the country’s wealth.

This 1% is a category that includes Nigerian politicians and several elites across Nigeria. They have directly and indirectly kept the remaining citizens under check through bad politics, bad policies and non-implementations of the programs that are structured to eliminate poverty and meet the Millennium Development Goals.

Among this 1% are those who control not only the political scene, but also manipulate the oil wealth. Until recently the oil sector was the only major foreign exchange earner for Nigeria. It is still the biggest.

To be fair, a few sectors emerged recently and gave the Nigerian economy a boost. The film and music industry, the financial sector and not least the telecommunication sector that were not developed before the 1990s were taken into consideration when Nigeria was declared as the biggest economy in Africa in 2014.

Still, there exist a continuous neglect and misuse of the all the natural resources that are locked up in the different regions across Nigeria and agricultural is yet to take its number one position as it was before 1960.

There are probably 5% Nigerians doing well on their own. By hard work, luck, rare opportunities and the invisible hand of fate, these people are living above the poverty level and they have some measure of comfort. s

Whilst they can count themselves as fortunate, they should never use their own rare successes to classify or generalize the situation in Nigeria. They must never try to eradicate the reality that there are more than 113 million people living in poverty.

The lazy, irritating, selfish central governments over the years under both tropical military gangsters and civilian crooks have shunned the responsibilities of solving Nigeria’s political and economic problems.

There is no political will to return to true federalism which will remove the power at the center and help to systematically abolish the grip of the 1% controlling majority of Nigeria’s wealth.

Therefore Nigerians continue to buy generators to provide electricity for themselves. When the whole world is taken into account Nigeria probably provides the lowest level of electricity per citizen. Less than 4000 MW for a population that nears 200 million people is a disgrace to the intellectual capacity of Nigerians as a people.

In recent history both Goodluck Jonathan, Olusegun Obasanjo and their cronies in the power sector squandered and embezzled the funds earmarked for electricity production.

Obasanjo promised 6 000MW. Yar Adua promised 20 000MW within 2 years. Jonathan wanted to do a magical 5 000MW in 2014. All the monies allocated for all these promises are gone! Nigerian rulers and those working against the progress of the power sectors (still part of the 1%) are pure criminals!

Apart from electricity millions of Nigerians provide their own water system, they find home for themselves or struggle to build one, they tar their own communal roads, they provide their own security systems and they find their own diverse ways of self-preservation.

The manner of unequal distribution of wealth is dehumanizing. The politicians have failed to stimulate the economy based on the distribution and spread of the resources in Nigeria. They relied too long on the oil wealth and they squandered and mismanaged the proceeds from it.

The postulation in 2014 that Nigeria is the 26th biggest economy in the world and the biggest economy in Africa has no tangible effects on the 113 million poor people. For a country suffering from bad planning, bad governance and an apparent overpopulation problem the economic indices are mere abstract figures.

Economic jargons like GDP of 1722 dollars per person in Nigeria do not put food on the table of poor people. How can one convince all the families of the unemployed graduates who died during the immigration examination scam that the economy is truly improved? What fates await the millions of unemployed school leavers and graduates?

In 2015 Nigeria entered an election year. In several articles l have warned about the postponement of the elections under several headlines and contents. This is something that the PDP cooked up a long time ago. It shocked me when the main stream media and the opposition finally understood a script that has existed for more than 6 months. O well, who controls the mainstream media if not the greedy 1%?

Irrespective of the decision that prevails the success of the election will eventually depend on the preparedness of INEC and the security situation across Nigeria. But I will never understand how it is business as usual in a country that entered an election year with so many uncertainties in the air including a war in some parts.

The credibility of the election is highly desirable but it will be like living in a fool’s paradise to expect a miracle afterwards. Nigeria does not have a simple solution anymore, not even as long as the almighty powerful center continues to exist.

The politicians have no political ideology. It has been too easy to move from one political party to another because each politician continues to look to butter his or her own bread every election year.

Remaining in the 1% bracket is crucial to the politicians; it is a matter of life and death. Call it do or die, you are still right.

It is more obvious that the political parties are almost the same as APC now looks like a party of PDP and CPC veterans and dropouts.

Nigerian politicians display clearly the mantra-no permanent enemies in politics, just permanent interests. They are liars and their permanent interest is to sustain the 1% club of national cabal and elites. Since the institutions of governance are weak or destroyed, they always seem to have their ways in the end.

The solutions to Nigeria’s problem may lie with the enlightened populace but they have refused to act appropriately. Many of them look forward to belonging to the club of the 1% that owns the economic wealth of Nigeria in their hands. Alternatively they look forward to belonging to the wider 5% through hope and rare opportunities. They don’t care about the rest!

This sad trend (that people are quiet as evil continues to persist) is one of the reasons for the increase in the number of people living in poverty from 55% in 2004 to 61% in 2010.

Hence regardless of the economic growth widely reported recently, the wealth remains concentrated in the hands of a few.

In 2015, Nigeria is listed among the world’s fastest growing economy whereas more than 90% of the population considered themselves to be poor already in 2010 and the figures are rising!

Nigeria’s wealth is looted daily. More than 140 billion dollars were transferred illegally out of the country between 2002 and 2011 only. Where were they: Obasanjo, Sanusi J, Soludo, Yar Adua, Sanusi L, Jonathan and Mrs. Iweala? They are part of the 1% keeping the money safe for personal use at home and abroad!

Nigeria needs both a political and an economic way forward. It will not come from the 1% that controls 80% of the country’s wealth. It is not forthcoming from the less than 10% that thrives in the midst of this anomaly.

The politicians are part of the 1%, they are unwilling and it appears they will never change the useless political system that keeps them rich and above the law (with the immunity clause of life).

When the poor, more than 90% of the population of Nigeria, have nothing to eat, no clothes to wear and no roof over their heads anymore, they will one day pounce on the rich. For it seems that unless they stage a revolution they will never be free.

aderounmu@gmail.com

Reference: Nigeria’s goes to election in the shadow of Boko Haram, by Henrik Angerbrandt 2014

A Remarkable Pact

Buhari and Jonathan signed a peace agreement. Historically this is a very remarkable pact-that a peace agreement was signed before a war or in the absence of war between 2 factions.

A Remarkable Pact

By Adeola Aderounmu

Ade

The ugly tradition of politics in Nigeria remains and is madly sustained.

Several politicians flock from the PDP fold into the APC fold as the February 2015 elections draw closer. This massive, aimless exodus of purposeless, selfish and greedy politicians is unprecedented in the history of Nigeria.

Nigeria is peculiar.

I have emphasized before that there are rewards for political prostitutions in Nigeria. As it stands now, it is impossible to find the definitive line that separates the two main political parties in Nigeria.

A good friend based in Southie argued that APC is different from PDP: that when the PDP members cross carpet to the APC they will act differently because people are influenced by the type of company that they keep.

I disagree on this one because APC is increasingly becoming a party of PDP dropouts. So the party continues. Where is the change? Who is fooling who?

Every four years people fall to the same political scam. It’s like a ritual. For those who are entering into political awareness for the first or second time, they will soon learn the name of the game.

For several others suffering from political myopism because they have not been paying attention for a very long time, they have refused to learn that the system of politics in Nigeria is remarkably dysfunctional.

Since the clarion call for the abruption of the faulty political system to allow for the re-actualization of the dreams of the fighters of the Nigerian independence is not yet popular, the follow-follow majority continue to hold on to false hopes every four years.

As the national existence in denial continues, there are probably 3 scenarios that may emerge depending on if peradventure the forthcoming presidential election, against all odds, reached  conclusion, or not.

The first scenario is that Goodluck Jonathan may continue in power. This is possible because global democracy has a nasty history of what is called the power of incumbency. Umaru Yar Adua missed out by his untimely death.

Despite the gross incompetence and laziness of corruption-laden Goodluck Jonathan, he may persist to extend beyond 2015 the worst post-military years of the Nigerian life which began with Obasanjo in 1999.

It is not only the power of incumbency that could tilt the votes in his favor. There is always a difference between what people might consider as social media popularity and the reality. Sweden and in fact the rest of Europe provide classical examples.

Racists and extremists’ political parties are winning more votes and finding their ways to European parliament despite the upsurge of campaign against them on the social media.

So the question is why do they keep getting so many votes? In Sweden the racist party is the third biggest political party. The party may not be popular online but it garnered massive votes on election days.

A lot of people think that Buhari will sweep the Nigerian presidential elections. How many of those who support Buhari at rallies have the cards to vote? Many Nigerians like to attend political rallies just the same way they attend religious crusades.

Nigerians are very good lookers too. If taxes are collected for looking, a lot of money will flow in to the government coffers daily in Nigeria. But the money will be looted anyway.

If we assume that Nigeria conducts a free and fair election, the social media denigration of Jonathan does not necessarily imply that the coast is clear for Buhari.

But there are crises and mayhem already in Nigeria that may escalate and hinder a free and fair election. The success of Boko Haram is an additional catalyst to any chaos that may trail the 2015 elections in Nigeria.

The second scenario is that Buhari too can win the election. If the massive support on the virtual social media and at the physical rallies translates into non-pretense active participation, then Buhari may win.

In addition if all the PDP prostitute politicians who cross-carpeted to APC can successfully convince their followers to do the same and if they all have the voters’ cards to exercise their rights, then Buhari may get a land-slide victory, l think.

The third scenario is what many people don’t want to talk about because it is highly undesirable, but not impossible.

If Nigeria reached an unresolved stalemate, say, as an outcome of the interplay of inconclusive presidential elections, violence around the country and escalation of the Boko Haram war on Northern Nigeria, then the future of Nigeria may be decided following long-drawn battles that will take place both on the political and war fields.

I maintain that it is very risky that Nigeria entered into this election season with many prevalent problems unsolved and many questions unanswered. The dirt under the carpet is massive and stinking.

Nigerians must know that there was a reason for the peace accord that was signed in Abuja in week 3 of 2015 by the principal members of both APC and PDP. If anyone thought that it was ordinary eyes, they better go wash off their eyes to see the handwriting on the wall and the reason for the peace agreement.

Again, Buhari and Jonathan signed a peace agreement. Historically this is a very remarkable pact-that a peace agreement was signed before a war or in the absence of war.

Nigerians must hope that this peace accord spreads to everyone including Boko Haram before the election. It is in fact a good deal and it is better to use it proactively than to try to use it by hindsight.

In the meantime isn’t it about time the intra-and interparty uprisings in Rivers State are stemmed before they spread to other parts of the country? We know that Amaechi has been promised a number of ministerial slots and the elimination process by murder had started in earnest! Wike and Amaechi will need their own peace accord before the River burns!

Nigeria faces her biggest challenge ever since the end of the civil war because an election is planned amidst a long list of uncertainties and in the face of Islamic fundamentalists waging a war in the northern region.

When, and if the dusts ever settle, the bigger challenges will remain because the future of any nation is more important than where she is now.

There are outstanding problems that are partially independent of whoever becomes the ruler of Nigeria as I call them.

Summarily, as a matter of urgency, Nigeria needs to:

  • End the war in the north and disarm the terrorists in the south and elsewhere
  • Find a permanent political solution
  • Face the current economic reality from a global perspective

The political solution ace lies with the National Assembly all the time. Instead of doing their jobs, they have over the years allowed themselves to be overshadowed by calls for Sovereign National conferences and all kinds of ruses called CONFABs.

The Nigerian National Assembly has, for so long, neglected its role of debating the political structure of Nigeria and how to systematically remove or reduce the power concentrated at the center. This negligence reflects the evil nature of the extreme selfishness of Nigerian politicians.

The system works for their pockets, makes them billionaires and promotes their ineptitudes. The system that has destroyed virtually all important organs of governance, probity and accountability makes Nigeria probably the most corrupt country in the world.

As the National Assembly continues to ignore this role, corruption persists as the most organized activity in Nigeria.

Hence successive corrupt governments continue to institute or plan own convention and conference. Mr. Jonathan wasted a fortune from tax payers’ money on this recently. The real National Assembly must start to debate even if the debate outlives a certain government.

It will not matter how long Nigerians beat about the bush. One day in the future, they will be forced to discuss reasonably through the national assembly. If it becomes too late the third scenario highlighted above may be triggered.

Then they’ll again have to bring their representatives who will discuss and negotiate the future of Nigeria by force so that they can come forward with a functional system of government.

On the economy, let me remind Nigeria that the future of crude oil does not look bright. The world is looking and it is finding alternatives to fossil fuels including crude oil. The argument is to reduce the extraction and refinery of crude oil to the production of raw materials that are related to medicine and household needs.

So it means that the diversification of the Nigerian economy cannot wait.

Solving the political problems and allowing the different regions in Nigeria to plan their survival and economic future are some of the ingredients that can move the country forward as a true federation the way it was before the ugly coups of 1966.

Nigeria must make use of her honest historians and political scientists to show the proper road maps.

All the fools, nonentities and dunces running to politics solely for money making need to be stopped!

Apart from an effective military that is well trained and combatant ready, the removal of the excess power at the center is probably the other most effective check to the nonsensical ambitions of Boko Haram.

This suggested political option is also probably the most significant check that can remove violence/chaos that characterized the election campaign seasons. For if the power at the center is removed or reduced, the hassles for it will almost vanish.

Definitely functional law and judiciary systems play their unquestionable roles.

All that is needed to put Nigeria among the best countries in the world in the next half a century, which also includes eradication of corruption at all levels, cannot be discussed in one essay.

The people must be educated, live in manageable planned family, learn the civics of trust, co-existence, tolerance, selflessness, dignity of labor, patriotism, nation building and commitment to humanity and nature.

These virtues will avail much and their acquisitions are not dependent on religion or any remarkable political agreement.

aderounmu@gmail.com

A Season Of Uncertainties

Is this the Nigerian future: to create a country determined by interplay of terrorists, dictators and authoritarians?

A Season of Uncertainties

By Adeola Aderounmu

Adeola_2013

Nigerian politicians and rulers are out doing what they know how to do best. They are now telling lies in accordance to their ritualistic electoral campaigns largely without manifestos, without ideologies.

In a 2-part essay The Kings Are Mad, l highlighted some of the problems facing the Nigerian people whilst the rulers continue to lie, make empty promises and merry.

Mr. Buhari has now promised to send corrupt politicians to jail. Well, we don’t know how the February elections will turn out and many people are still afraid of the destructive roles that Boko Haram can play.

Apart from the obvious threats that Boko Haram poses, the entire polity is over heated.

But Buhari must be promptly reminded that his era as a dictator and tyrant are over. If people are corrupt they must first pass through a process of lawful prosecutions. It would be very, very interesting to see a bold system in Nigeria where all the political criminals in APC, PDP and other small parties can be put to trial.

A legal war on corruption and political criminals that may even consume the originator is long desired in Nigeria’s rotten political sphere. First, let them remove the stupid and useless immunity clause.

On his part Mr. Jonathan has been going about in Nigeria exposing his ineptitude, more or less disgracing himself and his political party, the PDP. Never in the history of Nigeria has anyone seen such an incoherent, unstable man at the helm of affairs.

It probably sounds wiser for Jonathan to call off his campaign until he can gather his thoughts and speak sanely.

Up till now, he has not been thinking before speaking. It appears there is no reservoir of intelligence left to tap from. On several occasions he has given opposite views on the same discussions.

After reviewing his contradictions in the press, how does it feel to look in the mirror and see the face of an unrepentant, lazy liar? How does it feel to be a commander-in-chief of a weak and defeated armed force on home soil?

In 2011 Jonathan made more than 200 promises on his campaign trails. He was going to be a magician l thought. He told Nigerians to discard him into the dustbin if electricity is not stable after 4 years of his reign. That is one major reason he should have passed the mantle to another candidate in his party. Perhaps someone else in PDP got some brains that work!

Jonathan exhibited the cruelest attribute of a dictator in recent memory when he ensured that only one nomination form was printed for the PDP primaries. He killed the idea of intra-party democracy under his watch! Greed is an incurable disease.

On his campaign trail this week, Jonathan has avoided issues and concentrated mainly on responding to whatever Buhari or APC have done or said. He puts himself and his party in a defensive role. As l write l don’t know my home telephone number by heart and l have no plan to memorize such. What is wrong with Mr. Jonathan?

Nigerians must blame themselves for the choice that lies ahead of them. They created or allowed a system that permits evil to prevail over good. Now they will choose between 2 undesirable elements whereas there are political solutions that could bring out the best men and women locked up (in their safe havens) by a cruel political system.

Now, on one hand is this liar, a sinking man in a PDP boat. Jonathan has no vision beyond his Bayelsa enclave where he has now armed the Southern terrorists with state of the art weapons. He handed over the security of Nigerian waterways to Niger Delta terrorists and continues to stock their pile with all kinds of arms and ammunition from around the world.

On the other hand is a former dictator with earlier indications of sympathy to Boko Haram and a man who will probably still not hesitate to create retroactive decrees to satisfy his thirst for brutality and injustice. Buhari is pretending to be a latter day repentant democrat.

A real political solution will bring about the emergence of true federalism or regional autonomy pre-January 1966 Nigeria. This is one way to rid Nigeria of authoritarians like Jonathan and dictators like Buhari who are both sadly products of a failed unitary system of government.

A real political solution will rid Nigeria of these national nonentities. A real political solution will bring out the intelligence that will rescue the nations locked up in non-functional Nigeria.

The persistent political nonsenses are thriving amidst very serious uncertainties. I have previously highlighted some of these uncertainties in recent essays: Daybreak 2015 and A Waiting Mayhem. The mayhems are here already.

The lazy government of Jonathan is on a campaign trail. It appears all the security apparatuses in the country have been totally deplored on this selfish campaign trail.

Since the emergence of Mr. Jonathan, Boko Haram has shown superiority of warfare combat than the Nigerian military. This is both disgraceful and embarrassing to a country that prides herself, falsely that is, as the giant of Africa.

There has been a form of de-classified information in the international community stating that the Nigerian government is contemplating postponing the 2015 elections. Against the backdrop of preparedness of INEC and the threats of insecurity across Nigeria, the truth will soon emerge.

Furthermore the escalation of massacres in North Eastern Nigerian coincided with the assertion by the governors from this region insisting that elections must hold in their states. Therefore it seems that the terrorists are hell bent on thwarting any plan towards conducting elections in Yobe, Adamawa and Maiduguri.

There are several problems in Nigeria. The most pressing since the emergence of the lazy Jonathan government is lack of security. It appears that Jonathan and his cohorts are prepared for the self-destructive process that could accompany forthcoming elections.

For, it must be stated clearly that it is uncommon and actually unthinkable that a country that wants peace for the people would go to an election year or period with as many problems.

What are the plans made to retake the terrorist-occupied states before the February elections? How can a presidential election be valid if elections do not take place across the country?

Nigeria herself is being held hostage presently. There are some hypotheses indicating that this may be true.

Firstly, it will be very sad if the APC adoption and support for Buhari were built on the fear created by Boko Haram. Many people are anticipating that Boko Haram will close shop if Buhari is elected. But that hypothesis was put to test in week 2 of 2015.

Boko Haram was reported to have massacred more than 2000 people in the town of Baga effectively closing down the town. Rather than slowing down, Boko Haram is decimating Nigerians and taking more land space.

There is unrest in Jos this weekend. Jos remains a boiling point of ethnic and religious problems. It is a permanent volatile city that swells for revenge and counter attacks dating back many years, precipitated by the British rule. The torching of the Jonathan PDP buses will definitely be a tip of the iceberg, if history is anything to go by.

Secondly Jimi Agbaje attested to the second hostage situation when he stated that the Nigerian economy will be crippled by the Niger Delta militants if Jonathan is not re-elected. Is that what Jonathan went to tell his “fada”-Babangida in Minna?

Was the meeting a sponsors’ meeting? Was a battle line drawn between what Boko Haram wanted and what the Niger Delta militants wanted? Is this the Nigerian future: to create a state determined by interplay of terrorists, dictators and authoritarians?

Few people were reported killed in Rivers State when Buhari flagged off his campaign. In the South, this is a preamble to the waiting mayhem come February 2015. There are weapons and small arms everywhere in Nigeria.

This will be a remarkable year of uncertainties.

The price of crude oil continues to drop in the international market.  Nigeria is officially broke after all the lies told by Mrs. Iweala under whose watch billions of dollars continue to disappear.

In any case massive retrenchment looms in the air; unemployment is set to reach a new record high in 2015. Austerity measures will be re-introduced; realities of life will bite harder in Nigeria.

Unfortunately the costs of running the government will likely go up and politicians will continue to loot the treasuries across the country.

What will Nigerians do regarding all these uncertainties and realities? Will they reach a new level of threshold of human resilience?

Change is the most common expression in the air.

People need to be informed that change is beyond replacing one man with another man.  A cosmetic change is too superficial. At this point there should be a simultaneous, energized clamor for a long term political solution for Nigeria. The most important change will be to eradicate the power at the center that makes demons out of men and Jezebels out of women.

For growth and development, Nigeria needs to reinvest in public education at all levels making them free and compulsory. Nigeria needs to pay more attention to health, science, medicine, family planning, technology and attainment of the millennium development goals.

For the economy diversification cannot wait because crude oil will either suffer extinction or its use will continue to diminish. Today, crude oil no longer has the relevance it has in the last couple of decennial. Alternatives are emerging every day and the global pursuit is to limit the use of petroleum products to products that are not obtainable from other processes. Running cars is not one of them!

Every part of Nigeria needs repositioning for increased and improved agricultural productivity. Oil Palm, cocoa, groundnut, yam, cashew and all the other agricultural products must receive renew attention and implementation of development policies.

The natural resources need to be retaken from fake expatriates and corrupt, foolish, illiterate ministers who keep selling them abroad cheap! More investments in this area under the control of the regional governments will be desirable in a reformed political system.

In all other areas, there should be strict regulations on areas where Nigerian and Nigerians are being robbed every day. The communication industry, power generation and distribution are examples of where better control will bring genuine revenues that can be used for development and remove the exploitations that Nigerians face ignorantly!

At all cost, power supply must improve and be stable.

Production and manufacturing in Nigeria can be developed without denying Nigerians the right to import desired goods and services. Long term development goals and programs to improve the standard of living without unnecessarily increasing the cost are very much desirable.

Change can come to Nigeria but the people must be wary. They have already tarried.

They need commitment, patriotism, trust and rededication to humanity and country.

By supporting the calls for regional autonomy or true federalism, Nigerians can remove the cankerworm sucking them at the center and reposition the country where it belongs-a global giant-say in 50 years if they start now.

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