Buhari and Jonathan signed a peace agreement. Historically this is a very remarkable pact-that a peace agreement was signed before a war or in the absence of war between 2 factions.
A Remarkable Pact
By Adeola Aderounmu
The ugly tradition of politics in Nigeria remains and is madly sustained.
Several politicians flock from the PDP fold into the APC fold as the February 2015 elections draw closer. This massive, aimless exodus of purposeless, selfish and greedy politicians is unprecedented in the history of Nigeria.
Nigeria is peculiar.
I have emphasized before that there are rewards for political prostitutions in Nigeria. As it stands now, it is impossible to find the definitive line that separates the two main political parties in Nigeria.
A good friend based in Southie argued that APC is different from PDP: that when the PDP members cross carpet to the APC they will act differently because people are influenced by the type of company that they keep.
I disagree on this one because APC is increasingly becoming a party of PDP dropouts. So the party continues. Where is the change? Who is fooling who?
Every four years people fall to the same political scam. It’s like a ritual. For those who are entering into political awareness for the first or second time, they will soon learn the name of the game.
For several others suffering from political myopism because they have not been paying attention for a very long time, they have refused to learn that the system of politics in Nigeria is remarkably dysfunctional.
Since the clarion call for the abruption of the faulty political system to allow for the re-actualization of the dreams of the fighters of the Nigerian independence is not yet popular, the follow-follow majority continue to hold on to false hopes every four years.
As the national existence in denial continues, there are probably 3 scenarios that may emerge depending on if peradventure the forthcoming presidential election, against all odds, reached conclusion, or not.
The first scenario is that Goodluck Jonathan may continue in power. This is possible because global democracy has a nasty history of what is called the power of incumbency. Umaru Yar Adua missed out by his untimely death.
Despite the gross incompetence and laziness of corruption-laden Goodluck Jonathan, he may persist to extend beyond 2015 the worst post-military years of the Nigerian life which began with Obasanjo in 1999.
It is not only the power of incumbency that could tilt the votes in his favor. There is always a difference between what people might consider as social media popularity and the reality. Sweden and in fact the rest of Europe provide classical examples.
Racists and extremists’ political parties are winning more votes and finding their ways to European parliament despite the upsurge of campaign against them on the social media.
So the question is why do they keep getting so many votes? In Sweden the racist party is the third biggest political party. The party may not be popular online but it garnered massive votes on election days.
A lot of people think that Buhari will sweep the Nigerian presidential elections. How many of those who support Buhari at rallies have the cards to vote? Many Nigerians like to attend political rallies just the same way they attend religious crusades.
Nigerians are very good lookers too. If taxes are collected for looking, a lot of money will flow in to the government coffers daily in Nigeria. But the money will be looted anyway.
If we assume that Nigeria conducts a free and fair election, the social media denigration of Jonathan does not necessarily imply that the coast is clear for Buhari.
But there are crises and mayhem already in Nigeria that may escalate and hinder a free and fair election. The success of Boko Haram is an additional catalyst to any chaos that may trail the 2015 elections in Nigeria.
The second scenario is that Buhari too can win the election. If the massive support on the virtual social media and at the physical rallies translates into non-pretense active participation, then Buhari may win.
In addition if all the PDP prostitute politicians who cross-carpeted to APC can successfully convince their followers to do the same and if they all have the voters’ cards to exercise their rights, then Buhari may get a land-slide victory, l think.
The third scenario is what many people don’t want to talk about because it is highly undesirable, but not impossible.
If Nigeria reached an unresolved stalemate, say, as an outcome of the interplay of inconclusive presidential elections, violence around the country and escalation of the Boko Haram war on Northern Nigeria, then the future of Nigeria may be decided following long-drawn battles that will take place both on the political and war fields.
I maintain that it is very risky that Nigeria entered into this election season with many prevalent problems unsolved and many questions unanswered. The dirt under the carpet is massive and stinking.
Nigerians must know that there was a reason for the peace accord that was signed in Abuja in week 3 of 2015 by the principal members of both APC and PDP. If anyone thought that it was ordinary eyes, they better go wash off their eyes to see the handwriting on the wall and the reason for the peace agreement.
Again, Buhari and Jonathan signed a peace agreement. Historically this is a very remarkable pact-that a peace agreement was signed before a war or in the absence of war.
Nigerians must hope that this peace accord spreads to everyone including Boko Haram before the election. It is in fact a good deal and it is better to use it proactively than to try to use it by hindsight.
In the meantime isn’t it about time the intra-and interparty uprisings in Rivers State are stemmed before they spread to other parts of the country? We know that Amaechi has been promised a number of ministerial slots and the elimination process by murder had started in earnest! Wike and Amaechi will need their own peace accord before the River burns!
Nigeria faces her biggest challenge ever since the end of the civil war because an election is planned amidst a long list of uncertainties and in the face of Islamic fundamentalists waging a war in the northern region.
When, and if the dusts ever settle, the bigger challenges will remain because the future of any nation is more important than where she is now.
There are outstanding problems that are partially independent of whoever becomes the ruler of Nigeria as I call them.
Summarily, as a matter of urgency, Nigeria needs to:
- End the war in the north and disarm the terrorists in the south and elsewhere
- Find a permanent political solution
- Face the current economic reality from a global perspective
The political solution ace lies with the National Assembly all the time. Instead of doing their jobs, they have over the years allowed themselves to be overshadowed by calls for Sovereign National conferences and all kinds of ruses called CONFABs.
The Nigerian National Assembly has, for so long, neglected its role of debating the political structure of Nigeria and how to systematically remove or reduce the power concentrated at the center. This negligence reflects the evil nature of the extreme selfishness of Nigerian politicians.
The system works for their pockets, makes them billionaires and promotes their ineptitudes. The system that has destroyed virtually all important organs of governance, probity and accountability makes Nigeria probably the most corrupt country in the world.
As the National Assembly continues to ignore this role, corruption persists as the most organized activity in Nigeria.
Hence successive corrupt governments continue to institute or plan own convention and conference. Mr. Jonathan wasted a fortune from tax payers’ money on this recently. The real National Assembly must start to debate even if the debate outlives a certain government.
It will not matter how long Nigerians beat about the bush. One day in the future, they will be forced to discuss reasonably through the national assembly. If it becomes too late the third scenario highlighted above may be triggered.
Then they’ll again have to bring their representatives who will discuss and negotiate the future of Nigeria by force so that they can come forward with a functional system of government.
On the economy, let me remind Nigeria that the future of crude oil does not look bright. The world is looking and it is finding alternatives to fossil fuels including crude oil. The argument is to reduce the extraction and refinery of crude oil to the production of raw materials that are related to medicine and household needs.
So it means that the diversification of the Nigerian economy cannot wait.
Solving the political problems and allowing the different regions in Nigeria to plan their survival and economic future are some of the ingredients that can move the country forward as a true federation the way it was before the ugly coups of 1966.
Nigeria must make use of her honest historians and political scientists to show the proper road maps.
All the fools, nonentities and dunces running to politics solely for money making need to be stopped!
Apart from an effective military that is well trained and combatant ready, the removal of the excess power at the center is probably the other most effective check to the nonsensical ambitions of Boko Haram.
This suggested political option is also probably the most significant check that can remove violence/chaos that characterized the election campaign seasons. For if the power at the center is removed or reduced, the hassles for it will almost vanish.
Definitely functional law and judiciary systems play their unquestionable roles.
All that is needed to put Nigeria among the best countries in the world in the next half a century, which also includes eradication of corruption at all levels, cannot be discussed in one essay.
The people must be educated, live in manageable planned family, learn the civics of trust, co-existence, tolerance, selflessness, dignity of labor, patriotism, nation building and commitment to humanity and nature.
These virtues will avail much and their acquisitions are not dependent on religion or any remarkable political agreement.