There are plans to postpone or cancel the 2015 elections due to insecurity in substantial parts of the country. This will create an inflammable volatile tension that may be impossible to quench when it implodes.
By Adeola Aderounmu
Nigeria in 2014 is one of the most complicated places of earth.
The damage done to Nigeria and the psyche of Nigerians through 54 years of misrule is multifaceted.
The damage also includes the dearth of intellectualism in the public spaces. Where available, it is manipulated to suit evil desires of the rulers and politicians.
One of the most stupid debates one can imagine gathered momentum in Nigeria in recent weeks. Even former dictators and political rulers are discussing about their religions or faiths as the 2015 political season draws closer.
Nigerians are aligning along ethnic, tribal and religious lines for the 2015 national elections.
If the politicians, political godfathers and public office holders are also discussing their religions rather than their political pedigrees, patriotism and the positive thrusts that they could bring into offices, then Nigeria is on the threshold.
The permanent cracks called 36 states of Nigeria may collapse in an unexpected fashion.
The fertility provided by Boko Haram (BH) will not be an unexpected catalyst.
The ripened assimilation of religion into Nigerian politics is not an isolated phenomenon and it did not happen overnight. It was influenced by distrust and lose of political ideology.
Nigerians have been completely brainwashed by foreign religions mainly Christianity and Islam. The people are divided and separated not only by tribes (or ethnicity) but also by religious affiliations.
It is so sad and appalling that the religious denomination one belongs to affects also how one is perceived or received by other people sharing even the same religion.
The ascendance of religion in public and political life in Nigeria is one of the saddest events that befell the country. It brought a shade on all the anomalies that characterized the failed political structures and systemic collapse.
Religion was made one of the safe nests of criminals who have misruled Nigeria since 1960. It was the perfect cover for the promotion of idleness and crimes against humanity.
Nigerians swallowed political lies and religious fallacies hook, line and sinker. They left governance in the hand of crooks and let it rot.
Religion becomes an evil item the moment it is allowed to leave its terrain as a private experience and brought into public spheres. In Nigeria this has been the trend, the country is already suffering from the dividends of religion in public offices.
If Nigeria finally trips over the threshold (probably catalyzed by the BH war) those denying the negative roles of religion in politics and public life will be overwhelmed by both the existing polarity in the polity and the war already consuming substantial parts of the country.
The failures of the Jonathan-led weak unitary government and the Nigerian military to stem the BH war will continue to fuel the speculation that Nigeria is at war with itself. It will continue to promote the theory that the government of Nigeria is at war with her citizens.
Goodluck Jonathan was one of the weakest governors ever produced in Nigeria. Under him Bayelsa and Bayelsans simply went to sleep. His weakness as a ruler will probably explain why he needs so many attack dogs who are getting fat and building pot bellies on tax payers’ money.
Political pedigree remains insignificant in the unitary form of government in Nigeria. Hence rather than performing and being proactive Nigerians are stuck with a government that react and respond to every criticism of the lazy administration with irritating comments.
For instance Mr. Okupe is not worried about BH because the BH war is yet to disrupt his breakfast. I have not found a more senseless reaction from someone to whom much is given albeit from looted treasuries.
The official response from the lazy and corrupt Nigerian government has now shifted to declaring the obvious- that Boko Haram is at war with Nigeria. We are now told that the war is not a religious war but a political one invariably because of the indiscriminate targets of BH.
The unpleasant reality is that the war is taking on both dimensions. One does not exclude the other. BH (regardless of who the sponsors are-the PDP, the APC, some international gangsters or even aliens) is succeeding so far with the war against Nigeria.
Unfortunately for everyone the perpetrators are making use of Islam as their platform for propagating the war. In that sense one cannot rid the terrorists of their faith. It does not matter what other people think, this is what they (BH) professed.
The inability to tame BH and its alleged sponsors (allegations ranging from APC to PDP to international sponsors) has brought potential doom to the doorsteps of Nigerians.
Monsters usually go back to chase their makers and all. Can this explain the indiscriminate targets of BH and the recent invasion of Mubi, the hometown of the Badehs? Whose home town is next? The inactions of a weak government will avail much.
People are still arguing: we have always had these problems; Nigeria is not going to break.
Yes we have always had problems but there was no BH occupying an entire region.
Though there is a war going on, many are still saying we can’t afford another civil war.
Blind faiths promoted by different religions have reached new heights and unprecedented dimensions.
Distrust will never disappear from Nigeria. It was partly distrust and fear of domination that destroyed the first republic in 1966.
There will always be distrust and the fear of marginalization too.
Nigeria is at a threshold, the most fragile since the end of the civil war in 1970.
Mr. Goodluck Jonathan and the PDP are making plans to postpone or cancel the 2015 elections due to insecurity in substantial parts of the country. This will create an inflammable volatile tension that may be impossible to quench when it implodes.
Everything in life has a limit. Luck is not an exemption.
Nigeria is in a dire need of a political solution. It is getting too late. The country and the people are slipping precariously into a season of electoral chaos.
The BH war, incessant tribal and religious conflicts in several places, inter/intra-state political enmity and the supra religion-based 2015 elections are super enrichments for calamities and self-destruction mechanisms.
Even in the face of distrust or mistrust, leadership and development in region-based government across Nigeria was still functional until the senseless coups of 1966.
A political option for Nigeria is to retrace the map of regional government and initiation of a referendum on resource control.
Obviously, there are more problems and divisions in Nigeria today compare to 1965 or 1966.
Therefore a modification of the regional government map to accommodate present day agitations may not be a suggestion that is out of place. It is an option far better and more preferable to what BH war has carved out for everyone involuntarily (as the lazy government looks away).
After 54 years of mostly misrule and deviation from what is normal, I always insist that Nigeria will not get a magic dose and no suggestion will be an overnight maneuver to paradise.
Every day breakfast is interrupted in expected and unexpected places and there are no helicopters to evacuate the Nigerian species that are not connected to the Badehs, the Jonathans, the Okupes and the Abatis.
What if breakfast is interrupted in Otuoke tomorrow?
One day perhaps breakfast may be interrupted at Aso Rock Villa-Nigeria’s citadel of corruption, and mis-governance.
On such a day, the bitcoins supporting pseudo unity, political and religious fallacies would have been overspent, the permanent cracks will collapse and it may be too late to reverse the threshold.